Why Blu-Ray will make it when SACD, DVD-A, and HD-DVD won't

[JonUrban]

These are my opinions, so take them as you may.

Here's the deal. I have now experienced Blu-Ray and HD-DVD myself, and both are excellent formats. Both deliver great sound and picture. On my system, I can't quiet frankly tell the difference between the picture quality of either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD. However, I can pretty much guess that Blu-Ray will be the survivor. Here's why.

NUMBER ONE: The term "Blu-Ray" is now known to the general public as high definition DVD. Doing something that was NOT done with DVD-A and SACD, every ad on US TV that is promoting a new DVD release that is available on Blu-Ray proudly proclaims "Available on DVD AND BLU-RAY".

This may seem trivial to you, but I have seen it's effect in real life. People I deal with in business and my personal life know me as a "techie" type, and ofter ask me about new fangled things. Well, out of the blue, these people are asking me about Blu-Ray players!!! @: People I would have no idea would even know this stuff is out there. When I mention that there is also HD-DVD, there either give me a puzzled look, or tell me that they thought the HD-DVD was Blu-Ray!

Aside from the obvious things such as Disney aligning itself with Blu-Ray, and Blockbuster going to exclusive Blu-Ray, the term "Blu-Ray" is catching on and that's what people think is the high definition DVD!

When you think about it, it's a smart move. By NOT including DVD in the name of the format, they have created something "special", something that can have its own identity if you will.

Part of the problem with DVD-Audio is that it was constantly confused with concert and music DVD-Vs. The name and the format confused folks. They would have been better off calling them "Fred"!

HD-DVD may be a great format, but it has no name recognition, especially if you figure that some people will actually think you are looking for Blu-Ray when you ask about HD-DVD, because that's what they think Blu-Ray is; High Definition DVD!

At any rate, Joe Sixpack is buying 16x9 TVs in droves, and the availability of Blu-Ray, and the name recognition of Blu-Ray is going to count for a lot. When these players are plentiful at under $500, and the big titles start coming out, these things are going to sell.

They will not supplant DVD, however, I would suspect that with the proper marketing behind them, they will gain a large market acceptance faster than you might think. Unlike SACD and DVD-A, today's market loves things that people can SEE. With hit or miss cable and satellite HD coverage, the best way to "amaze" your friends is to invite them over to see an HD movie, and most folks will think Blu-Ray.

Industry folks said that LaserDisc would last at least 8 years after DVD was introduced, and that proved to be totally wrong. I think that Blu-Ray will make a huge leap forward in the next two years, taking a big chunk of the DVD market, as people stop buying DVDs (maybe just renting them) because they do not want to be stuck with obsolete media.

Once the HD-DVD hold out studios make the move to Blu-Ray, I fear that HD-DVD will enter the footnote phase of former media. And it's not because the format is bad.

It's all marketing. And just as marketing failed with SACD and DVD-Audio, it will be the difference in the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD format war.

It's a shame it even had to come to this.

 

[Lucanu]

Good point Jon, and don't forget PS3 which amplifies Blu-Ray name through customers.

 

[JonUrban]

Good point Jon, and don't forget PS3 which amplifies Blu-Ray name through customers.

Yeah, but I don't buy the PS3 deal. A video game is something parents buy to put in the basement, the rec room, the kids room, etc. They want something that the kids take over. Would you rather spend $250 on a Wii for the kids, or $700 on a PS3? Even with a PS3, you would have to figure that for that much cash, the buyer would HAVE to put it on his "good" TV, probably a wide screen deal. If there are kids involved, would you want the kids playing around with the "good" TV?

I think a game is a game and is bought to be a game. The whole SACD/Blu-Ray thing with the PS3 to me is a ploy to show that there have been 'x' amount of Blu-Ray players sold. It's really something that Sony counted on, and they failed to figure in the fact that the Wii was coming out.

The Wii stole the thunder form the PS3, there is no question about that. However, if Sony did a PS3 "light", with no Blu-Ray/SACD capability, I would bet that would sell a ton.

Again, just my thoughts...............

 

[Chris Gerhard]

Of these four great formats, I believe Blu-ray is best and has the best chance at a large enough market for success. I agree with you and your guess is as good as anybody's so all we can do now is hope. When it comes to home audio/video, Blu-ray can do it all and do it all as good as or better than any other format. With 50GB on a single 5" shiny disc, Blu-ray can succeed as the upper scale PC removable media as well. Why shouldn't it be the last and greatest 5" shiny disc format? I am sold on it.

I don't think it ever replaces DVD as the mainstream home video format or CD as the mainstream audio format. With those 2 in basically 100% of homes in this country and enjoying a huge market everywhere they almost surely continue on. Both of those likely decline, but don't die and survive along with Blu-ray until all three disappear. I only hope Blu-ray can find a market and thrive, whatever it needs, 30% or 40% of US homes, I don't know, but it needs to get going to get there, wherever it is.

Chris

 

[Quadwreck]

HD-DVD is almost as cumbersome a name as DVD-Audio, so Blue-Ray gets the edge there. What remains to completely win over HD audio fans is:
Not having to use your TV to play and listen to HD surround audio.
Competitive pricing
Easy availablility of a wide variety of titles
PROMOTION

 

[timbre4]

I did see a pretty good HD-DVD Toshiba ad that I thought was slick about a month ago. Saw it once or twice while those big price reductions were going on but nothing since.

Jon has a point about the "Available on DVD & Blu-Ray" tagline that I am exposed to on TV, Web, magazines, etc. I can see how Blu-Ray is becoming synonomous with Hi Def disc.

As was said above, PROMOTION has always been the key! Blu-Ray may have won the war by being sure it was differently named and then mention the hell out of it so people know there is something beyond the DVD.

BTW - When are any of the Warner THD (HD-DVD/Blu-Ray) discs supposed to hit the market? You'd have to think that this tent would be ready to fold up if more announcements keep coming like Blockbuster, etc. These may all be little things taken by themselves, but they add up.

Off-topic: ABC ran Little Nemo in HD tonight and we seriously stopped and gawked at the stunning 1080p picture that jumped out at us! It's all good and some's way better.... :

So Blu-Ray will work big time whereas MVI will probably sink like a rock....

 

[BananaSlug]

I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention, but I did see that HD DVD is set to release the Matrix trilogy. Maybe it's already too little too late though? I'm still watching on a standard def. tube t.v., by the time I get there someone will have won.

 

[bmoura]

So Blu-Ray will work big time whereas MVI will probably sink like a rock....

What is MVI ?

 

[Lucanu]

Yeah, but I don't buy the PS3 deal. A video game is something parents buy to put in the basement, the rec room, the kids room, etc. They want something that the kids take over. Would you rather spend $250 on a Wii for the kids, or $700 on a PS3? Even with a PS3, you would have to figure that for that much cash, the buyer would HAVE to put it on his "good" TV, probably a wide screen deal. If there are kids involved, would you want the kids playing around with the "good" TV?

I think a game is a game and is bought to be a game. The whole SACD/Blu-Ray thing with the PS3 to me is a ploy to show that there have been 'x' amount of Blu-Ray players sold. It's really something that Sony counted on, and they failed to figure in the fact that the Wii was coming out.

The Wii stole the thunder form the PS3, there is no question about that. However, if Sony did a PS3 "light", with no Blu-Ray/SACD capability, I would bet that would sell a ton.

Again, just my thoughts...............

What I intended is, from what I saw where I was working, that people buy 300€ mp3 players just because it has just been told to be a "good" one.
And guess what? they don't even own a PC!!!

So, when kids demand for a PS3 because it's better than PS2, people doesn't REALLY know ps3 has blu-ray or sacd, but for Sony it is a markable way to go.
I'm speaking for Italian market of course.
My 2 cents.

 

[El Guapo]

Hi there!

I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention, but I did see that HD DVD is set to release the Matrix trilogy. Maybe it's already too little too late though? I'm still watching on a standard def. tube t.v., by the time I get there someone will have won.

The Matrix trilogy has been available on HD DVD since May 22, and it really looks and sounds great (TrueHD!). The reason why Warner did not release it on Blu-ray so far is that the Blu-ray standard currently lacks the technical capabilities for PiP, which is used for the "In-Movie Experience" which is something like a video commentary, similar to the audio commentaries of DVDs, but with a small picture in picture, where they also can illustrate what's being said (behind the scenes snippets, B-roll from the stunt work, etc.).

Blu-ray is a banana standard (ripens at the customers) which was introduced to the market before it was really finished. So it lacked all the specs for the interactive stuff and thing like PiP. But I guess they didn't have much choice: had they not entered the market when they did, there would not have been a format war, because HD DVD would have had such a head start that it would have looked really dire for Blu-ray.

That's one of the reasons why I first bought an HD DVD player, because I wouldn't have outdated hardware next fall when the next version of the Blu-ray standard (with BD-Java) goes to market. The other one being of course the stupid regional coding! I can't bitch enough about this abomination! I realize that in the US almost nobody gives a damn, but this is really a big issue for me (and I guess for a lot of people in Europe - especially the UK).

Having said that, I think Jon has a point. And if this is the reality on the US market, I can hardly argue here. In Germany, both formats are currently a non-issue in the general public and only discussed among the early adopters and people who are active or interested in the Home Theatre technology.

Best regards,
Oliver

 

[Dylan Berichon]

Off-topic: ABC ran Little Nemo in HD tonight and we seriously stopped and gawked at the stunning 1080p picture that jumped out at us! It's all good and some's way better.... :

ABC is 720p, but other then that, you are right. I watched some of it my self and it was astounding.

Here's some screen shots!
See attached files.

These are full resolution 720p screen shots from the movie.

 

[Dylan Berichon]

As for the topic at hand, Jon hit the nail on the head.

I actually wrote a paper for one of my marketing classes about how DVD-A was misnamed from the beginning.

Bottom line is that people associate "DVD" with video, and not audio.

As for the blu-Ray HD-DVD format war, I think it's a bit too early to tell for sure. At present, blu-ray does seem to be in the lead, but I think that could easily change. Only time will tell.

 

[lolbroek]

What is MVI ?

See, your question makes it absolutely clear that Warner is NOT doing a good job on promoting this. (are they even at all?)

On topic: I agree with what you say JonUrban: Blu-Ray will probably win but not because of its name or so, but because it clearly has more studios and hardware manufacturers backing it.

 

[Rck60s]

In Atlanta we did not get Nemo....We got Parenthood!!!!!!! I really hate WSB

 

[Chris Gerhard]

The other one being of course the stupid regional coding! I can't bitch enough about this abomination! I realize that in the US almost nobody gives a damn, but this is really a big issue for me (and I guess for a lot of people in Europe - especially the UK).

I see that bitch a lot. What I have never understood is why. HD DVD not using regional coding doesn't mean any company that insists on regional coding will give in and release the title without regional coding. It only means any company that insists on regional coding won't release the title on HD DVD. With Blu-ray, region coding or no region coding, the title is welcomed. That sure seems to me to be a big advantage for Blu-ray. Tosbiba can't dictate to Fox release the title without regional coding. Fox can sure dictate to Toshiba that the title won't be released without it.

Every title without region coding in Europe can be released on Blu-ray without region coding if the companies owning the rights want to do so. The Blu-ray group never dictates release the title with region coding or don't release it. The overwhelming majority of titles released on Blu-ray thus far don't use region coding. I guess some things I will never understand.

Chris

 

[JonUrban]

On topic: I agree with what you say JonUrban: Blu-Ray will probably win but not because of its name or so, but because it clearly has more studios and hardware manufacturers backing it.

You're right about that. I took that as a given. I just think that more non-tech folks know about Blu-Ray if only by name, and in the long run that's half the battle.

I would bet that there are more regular people that know what Blu-Ray is than can tell you what an SACD or DVD-A are, and that's amazing (and sad).

Marketing it the key.


PS - STARZ is running the Pixar film CARS in HD this month, and it too is amazing. The Blu-Ray disc of Cars is scheduled out some time this year.

 

[El Guapo]

I guess some things I will never understand.

Yes, I get the same impression!

 

[Old Quad Guy]

At present, blu-ray does seem to be in the lead, but I think that could easily change. Only time will tell.

I agree with Jon that since the major studios back Blu-Ray it will make it as the dominate format. Still, I have questions:

What is the Board's opinion about Toshiba Launching a New Hard Disk Recorder with HD-DVD disc recording for the home?
https://www.quadraphonicquad.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8244

And Neil's warning not to buy Blu-Ray authoring software because one cannot create Master Blu-Ray Disc's for mass production.
https://www.quadraphonicquad.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8257

Won't these development's keep HD-DVD alive as an alternative for HD content creation? Or will Blu-Ray make HD home recorders and content creation for mass production easy and cheap in the near future?

Just wondering what effect - if any - HD recording and HD content creation will have on all of this...

 

[JonUrban]

Just because I think Blu-Ray will "win", doesn't mean that I think it's the best. "The Best" is irrelevent in the commercial world. I'm sure there were deals made to correct the mistakes of other new format launches that are stacking the favor of Blu-Ray over HD-DVD, and that may be bad news for some. It's hard to say.

I am frankly surprised that HD-DVD is putting up such little fight. It's almost like Toshiba is being left out there to hang on it's own. Except for the XBOX (another video game deal), what else is there for HD-DVD.

Another sad state of the format war. UGH!

As far as disc based home recording goes, I don't think it's that important these days. Most "hi-tech" homes have DVRs for their cable and satellite, which take over the "time shifting" element of the VCR. And when someone wants something saved for posterity (weddings, etc), they do that on their PCs. I am not sure what the requirement for HD would be for personal recordings.

Time will tell.............

 

[Odys]

It's funny, the name blu-ray was initially seen as a negative because nobody knew what it meant. That said, I see plenty of ads for new DVD's that say "now available on DVD and HD-DVD", so it's not just blu-ray doing this. Toshiba is also more aggressively marketing their players. Have you seen the commercials with Michael Imperioli from the Sopranos? A rather odd choice for a spokesperson, but they're still in the ballgame.